The United States said it would support Ukraine “as long as necessary,” but that is now a thing of the past. Today, Joe Biden says “while we can.” In this situation, Europe cannot allow one country to block the foreign policy of the entire bloc.
EU leaders agreed to start accession talks with Ukraine in eight hours, which is fast by EU standards. The decision is a major achievement for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky – for which Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán was just as quick to take him to task: blocking 50 billion euros in aid Ukraine desperately needs to protect itself. The second anniversary of the start of the war is approaching and Europe is stuck in a stalemate.
EU strategy towards Ukraine is based on three pillars. First, the leaders accepted the definition of victory, which implies the restoration of territorial integrity of Ukraine. They promised to support Ukraine until it regains territory occupied by Russia since the beginning of the war.
Secondly, Europe's policy towards Russia is focused only on economic sanctions and international isolation. Western companies have moved en masse from Moscow and St. Petersburg, the G7 group has imposed price caps on Russian oil, and Western capitals. banished There are hundreds of Russian diplomats.
Third, Europe's dependence on American support has reached a level not seen since the Cold War. Despite intensifying US competition with China, President Biden's administration is devoting significant diplomatic, economic and military resources to ensuring security and stability in Europe.
As a result, Ukraine manages to maintain about 82 percent. Before the Russian invasion of its territory and Moscow suffers a significant loss in people and resources. Moreover, the transatlantic alliance, which died under former President Donald Trump, is stronger today than at any time since the end of the Cold War.
However, all three of these pillars are beginning to falter. Although Orbán's attempt to veto Ukraine's accession failed thanks to procedural tricks, the victory is more symbolic than practical. For example, it will not affect the extension of necessary financial assistance. There was a stalemate on the battlefields of eastern Ukraine, from which Russia could take advantage. Loaded with unrealistic expectations from the beginning, the Ukrainian counterattack did not achieve its goals.
The effectiveness of the sanctions imposed against Russia is also under question. A recent journalistic investigation by the Politico website revealedthat Western restrictions are far less stringent than expected. Like Russian President Vladimir Putin manages around the Middle East and threatens Opening further fronts in Europe, a consensus is emerging in Washington that after the 2024 presidential elections, the US will have to establish contact with Moscow.
The decline of American interest in Ukraine is the most serious threat to the stability of the old continent. European leaders are most concerned about Trump's potential return to the White House in 2025. Right-wing analysts have already started writing plansNATO's dormancy“And instead of splitting the loads, I recommend “moving” them.
However, the problem is not limited to Trump. As it seems Even the Biden administration has changed its tone, which until now played an important role in the coordination of the defense of Ukraine. recently Joint press conference Biden used Zelensky new Wording: He said the US would support Ukraine “as long as we can.” “As long as it takes,” he repeated earlier. Zelensky standing next to him was clearly depressed. He came to Washington to get congressional Republicans to approve a big aid package, but He failed Convince them.
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Biden's shift in rhetoric underscores the dilemma facing Ukraine's European allies and underscores the urgent need for Europe to rethink its strategy. To begin with, it is worth stopping to define the victory of Ukraine by the restoration of the occupied territories. Equally important is the character and identity of post-war Ukraine, especially its attachment to democratic principles. If Ukraine emerged from this war as a strong democracy that joined NATO and the European Union, it would be a spectacular triumph, regardless of specific territorial gains.
Western allies should focus on supporting Ukraine in realizing such a vision. Europeans should help Ukraine reform its economy and military industry so that the country is less dependent on the whims of Western domestic politics. This will allow Ukraine to create financially sustainable defense mechanisms against Russian aggression. Instead of waiting for the war to end, Western governments should help Ukraine rebuild its economy and tax base despite the ongoing conflict.
Redefining the idea of Ukrainian victory must go hand in hand with a new understanding of Russia's defeat. Given that this war is unlikely to end with the prosecution of Putin and his cronies in The Hague, the EU must face long-term problems caused by the multidimensional conflict between Russia and Europe, such as the energy crisis, political turmoil and geopolitical instability. . A long-term conflict with a rogue regime requires a comprehensive strategy, including creating channels to understand and predict the Kremlin's intentions and tactics.
Regardless of who sits in the White House in January 2025, the EU must reduce its dependence on the US. This means more defense spending and the development of an effective pan-European strategy. The possibility of a single member state – as Hungary recently took control of the entire bloc's foreign policy – is not sustainable and does not correspond to the EU's ambition to strengthen its influence in the world. Multipolar centers of power.
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Despite these challenges, the December European Council may have successfully laid the foundations for a new vision for Europe. For two years, the actions of the European Union have been guided by a previously unheard-of agreement between member states. France found a new enthusiasm for Eastern Europe and the expansion of the Union, and Germany became more interested in defense. Even Italy seems to have cut ties with Russia and the UK is slowly warming to the EU.
An important election year begins in Europe, the United States and Great Britain. Therefore, the future of the transatlantic alliance remains uncertain. In order to survive the regional and global transformations, the EU must use this period of uncertainty and change to develop a strategy that will enable both the European bloc and Ukraine to survive the difficulties of the coming years.
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Mark Leonard He is the director of the European Council of Foreign Affairs and the author of the book An age of non-peace. Interdependence as a source of conflict (Translated by Andrzej Wojtasik, Krytyka Polityczna 2022).
Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2023. www.project-syndicate.org. Translated from English by Alexandra Pashkovska.
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