According to strategic management consultant Stephen Kopits, if the current rate of Russian personnel losses continues at the same level, the war could be shortened by an entire year.
“According to the official calculations of Ukraine, in November and December, the Russians lost up to 1,000 people a day,” the author writes. He estimates that at the current rate of operations on the front, Russian losses will eventually reach 650,000 people. in 2024. Kopitsa suggests that when this is the case, Moscow may face significant public opposition.
“If it turns out that this is the limit of social tolerance, the war can end at this time. The next stop will be a million dead Russians, which at the current rate can be expected in the fall of 2025,” the expert noted. .
Kopitz added that the Russian Federation has no territorial losses, no hostilities are taking place on Russian territory, no one has attacked Russia, and the war does not pose an existential threat to Russia. Against this background, the Kremlin will have to justify the loss of 650,000 people.
Earlier, the British Ministry of Defense predicted that if the rate of Russian losses in the war in Ukraine continues, the total number of dead and wounded will exceed 500,000 by 2025.
Russia's goals
– Western elites are trying to destroy Russia with the help of Ukraine. The problem is not that they are helping our enemy, they are our enemy. They solve their problem by hand. It was like this for centuries and it continues like this, – said the President of Russia, Vladimir Putin during the meeting Together with Russian soldiers injured during hostilities in Ukraine.
– Ukraine itself is not our enemy. But those who want to destroy the Russian state, those who want to achieve, as they say, the strategic defeat of Russia on the battlefield. And this is mainly said by the so-called elites in the West, for whom the existence of Russia in its current quality and size, in their opinion, is unacceptable, he emphasized.
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