For the public—increasingly dissatisfied with the SNS government that lasted more than a decade—the electoral fraud in the third election after 2020 was too much. What will the Western countries do, whose hypocrisy Vucic treats as fuel for his constant election campaign?
December 17, 2023 was supposed to be a day of great triumph Alexander Vucic and his Progressive Party of Serbia (SNS), which has been in power in Serbia since 2012. The results of early parliamentary, provincial and local elections held in 65 out of 174 cities and municipalities were a confirmation of their complete dominance in the political arena.
In theory, the results presented by President Vučić on the night of the election confirmed the victory of the SNS at all three levels and secured a parliamentary majority. However, this time there was a need for large-scale machinations and electoral fraud, which the authorities, which were sure of their impunity, did not try to hide, as confirmed by the observation missions of the OSCE and the European Parliament.
However, this was too much for the public – increasingly dissatisfied with the rule of the SNS, which had lasted for more than a decade. Students protested the National Election Commission for several days, opposition politicians decided to go on hunger strike, social organizations organized demonstrations demanding the annulment of votes and structural changes that would make it possible to hold equal and democratic elections.
Undemocratic elections as a legitimation strategy
Early elections and constant campaigning are a permanent feature of the system of government created by Vucic in Serbia. This was the third parliamentary election after 2020. They were organized when it was convenient for the government – it was necessary to demonstrate dominance in the political arena or to postpone difficult decisions about Kosovo or foreign policy that were pressured by the West. The entire big party machine and SNS are currently 800,000. Members in the country of 6.5 million are focused on securing further electoral victories.
Activists in this area control whether people in the public sector, who are assigned to their labor party (it is also responsible for hiring private sector employees), as well as privileges and lucrative government contracts, vote with the whole family. with the expectations of their principals. In addition, public resources are used with generous pre-election gifts to relevant social groups – additional financial resources for pensioners, students, families with children, social security clients and food parcels.
The government's dominance of the media not only prevents the opposition from presenting its candidates and program to a wider group of voters, but also constitutes an element of struggle against all people and groups who criticize the government. Supporting the opposition in Serbia comes with high costs – not only economically, related to the risk of loss of income, but also exposure to hate campaigns in the media. He found this out, by the way, by one of the candidates for the City Council of Belgrade, whose intimate recordings were broadcast by one of the TV stations close to the government.
The government's significant financial advantage is especially visible during the campaign – it allows them to organize large rallies in which people are transported by buses, or to cover the entire country with pictures of their candidates. Access to state resources is also important on election day – it allows you to transport voters to election commissions, as well as from neighboring countries with a large Serbian minority – Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro. In theory, you must be registered in Serbia to vote in elections, but institutional controls allow you to register any number of people at an address specified by the government.
Constant campaigning is also a strategy to exhaust the opposition. It leaves no time for reflection, for the development of a well-thought-out program and strategy, or for the promotion of new leaders. Therefore, the most recognizable opposition politicians are still associated with the governments of 2008-2012 in corruption, which weakens the credibility of this formation. Especially since the pro-government media eagerly uses the topic of previous governments' violations.
Doubtful welfare and safety
With such an advantage, Vucic was confident that the election would confirm his party's dominance and allow him to strengthen his legitimacy in the eyes of a public and foreign partners damaged by mass protests and weeks of mass shootings. The first days of May 2023, when 19 teenagers and young people died at the hands of their peers.
The shootings in Belgrade have shaken the sense of security among Serbian residents, who blame the events on state media that normalizes violence, promotes the cult of guns and physical force, and gangsters as role models for young people. This undermined key elements of the government's propaganda based on the promise of stability. Fulfillment of the second key promise, namely the long-term improvement of the economic situation, is also increasingly doubtful.
The economic crisis felt throughout Europe, as a result of the pandemic and Russia's attack on Ukraine, had a particularly negative impact in Serbia, whose society is clearly poor – in 2023, the highest increase in inflation was recorded among the countries. continent. Prices for food, energy and housing maintenance have increased significantly.
The economic hardships felt by citizens were in stark contrast to the government's narrative of a “golden age of Serbian economic development.” Although, according to economic indicators, the situation is still much better than in 2012, when the SNS took power – unemployment has halved, wages and pensions have increased significantly – but the expectations of the public, fueled by propaganda and the oligarchs connected to the government, were much higher. A significant increase is blamed.
Growing local environmental protests in Serbia also point to opposition to Vucic's proposed economic development model based on large infrastructure projects (mainly roads) and attracting foreign investors with low labor costs, subsidies, environmental standards, and labor inconsistencies. Rights and very favorable regulations on expropriations.
Issues of impunity Investors are destroying the natural environment, Ignoring the needs and demands of local communities, selling national assets for next to nothing (eg valuable copper deposits handed over to Chinese entities) or offering lucrative contracts in exchange for political support in the international arena (eg those associated with the Hungarian Prime Minister). – Viktor Orbán) has translated into a growing feeling that economic policies only benefit a narrow elite and that the poor part of society is burdened with negative consequences.
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However, what clearly distinguished this election from previous elections was the unity of the pro-democratic opposition, which wanted to capitalize on social discontent and ran with a joint list under the slogan of the spring protests – “Serbia against violence”. Hopes were also tied to mobilizing those who had not yet voted, believing that Vucic's system was so deeply rooted in society that it was impossible to change the government through voting. Social organizations and intellectuals got involved A pro-activity campaign.
The opposition managed to significantly increase its position in the parliament and gained almost 25 percent. A vote and 65 seats in the 250-member assembly, but he failed to take power in the Belgrade City Council. This failure caused great public dissatisfaction and protest. They hoped that the opposition would win in the capital, where there are the most opponents of the government.
However, the government did not want to allow a prestigious defeat in the capital. Especially since it is in their interests to have public apathy and the feeling that there is no alternative to Vucic and his associates. For this reason, significant resources were invested to obtain a favorable result for the state. Voting, especially among young voters, showed that in today's conditions – with such a significant advantage of the government – the opposition has no chance of victory, and structural changes are needed in order for the elections to be held in accordance with democratic standards. That's why they decided to go out on the street.
Dilemmas of the West
Protests by students and politicians have put the European Union in a difficult position, which officially demands the democratic standards of candidate countries for membership. Western embassies are demanding an explanation for the voting irregularities, but they are not officially questioning the election results, given that a possible change in Serbia's ruling elite would risk long-term instability. The effect of such changes is unclear, as the democratic opposition is a conglomeration of different movements with ambitious leaders and different political programs, with no clear strategy for responding to mass election fraud.
Vucic himself is using the post-election period to secure support abroad. On the one hand, it uses a close-to-Russia narrative of a Western-backed “color revolution” that seeks to overthrow a democratically elected government, and expresses its gratitude to Moscow for its support. On the other hand, consent to concessions Kosovo It shows that only the current government can normalize relations between Belgrade and Pristina, and that is what the West is most interested in right now.
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This tactic is also a trap set for Western partners, as their lack of a decisive reaction fits into Vucic's narrative of the hypocrisy of the EU and the US, which only verbally support democratic values but actually agree to violate them. President Vučić probably hopes that by making concessions he will ensure silence from the West, which will reinforce the public's belief that there are really no allies in the struggle for democracy in Serbia and discourage further street protests.
However, at the same time, rather than strengthening it, the election undermined the legitimacy of Vučić's rule both domestically and internationally. Perhaps, under the pressure of the European Union, the president will be forced to repeat the elections in Belgrade. The situation in the country is still unstable and the society is very polarized. The need to restore his position is likely to encourage the president to increase his control over society and nationalist rhetoric, which threatens the stability of the entire region.
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Marta Shpala He is an analyst of the Center for Eastern Studies, the main specialist of the Central Europe team.
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