The Polish Economic Institute (PIE) has analyzed data on the housing market in Poland and based on them, predicts what the situation will be in the coming year 2024. And it is not optimistic. Experts expect a further decrease in the number of newly delivered buildings the author Investors.
The number of new residential buildings is decreasing
This year, a building will appear on the market, the construction of which began in 2022 and at that time The number of construction starts was 200,000 apartments. This is 27% less. compared to 2021 and the worst result since 2017.
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The number of construction starts at the end of 2023 increased, but this should not affect the supply of apartments completed at the beginning of the year. Since 2021, the number of apartments for which construction permits have been issued has also decreased. Then this number was 310,000, last year – 240,000. – we read in the PIE report.
As a result, there is no reason to expect a breakthrough in the number of new buildings on the market. “We are waiting for it In 2024, the number of apartments put into operation will be about 200,000. And this will be the lowest result since 2018.“- sum up the experts.
Desire of Poles to buy their own apartment
A combination of these and other factors led to a credit market recovery after a weak 2022. Credit Information Bureau (BIK) data indicate that in the second half of the year The Poles presented an average of 40,000. Housing loan applications per month. That's almost a 200% increase. Compared to the data of the same period of the previous year. However, experts now expect this trend to slow down Due to the completion of the program (New The government wants to offer its own).
However, PIE emphasizes that the discrepancy between the number of completed investments and the growth of interest in own “M”. will lead to further increase in prices per square meter. They will increase primarily in large cities, where the number of new apartments for sale will be less than in 2022.
The exact price increase in 2024 will depend on the “Safe Credit 2%” program, interest rates, inflation and the general market situation in Poland, explains PIE.
Bad mood in the construction industry
In its analysis, the institute also notes that the mood in construction is still not good. Although entrepreneurs will be more willing to build new apartments, “a major revival should not be expected.”
The general economic climate index at the end of 2023 was -13.2. Even in 2022, this indicator was -23.9. The last time he had a positive test was earlier pandemic.
“This is the second worst result in the industry, after industrial processing. The main problem for entrepreneurs is the increase in employment costs (70%) and material costs (55%).– summarizes PIE.
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