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Many commentators on political life, especially on the right side of the public debate scene, predict that the radical policies of Donald Tusk's new government, far from the rule of law, will lead to a decrease in the support of the parties that formed the coalition group. That is, the third way, before the elections.
However, so far, polls do not confirm such opinions. According to a United Surveys study for Wirtualna Polska published on December 20, 2023, Trzecia Droga approached the 20% level of public support. Even if this data is slightly exaggerated, The strengthening of the positions of PSL and Szymon Holavnia's party Polska 2025 is noticeable.. This is not at all surprising, and it is worth writing why.
Where does support for the Third Way come from?
In a political forecast for the next year published on social media on January 1, 2024, the president of the Republican Foundation, Marek Wrobel, wrote among others: “Holovnia's party will quickly disappoint those who voted wisely, hoping to calm debate and morale. PSL may not have it easy either.” A few days earlier, the same author wrote: “Just as I argued for several years with those who claimed that 'Holavnia no longer exists', I now believe that Poland 2050 is slowly coming to an end.” He has played his part, no longer needed, he has lost his prominence. The platform will eat it. If new elections are not held within one year, maximum 2 years”.
From another note, we can conclude that, according to the head of the Republican Foundation, the current popularity of the Third Way is the result of the popularity that Shimon Holonia gained as the Speaker of the Seimas, where he skillfully used the acquired skills. For years he worked in front of the camera as a TV host.
December's record numbers at sessions of the Sejm, the lower house of parliament, are due in part to the impressive approach to his duties by the leader of Poland in 2050. According to the diagnosis of Marek Wrobel, the group's popularity. The former TVN star and author of widely read religious books may end up burning out, attracting interest for the bold new style in which he conducts proceedings. Then, in fact, the loss of strictly political prominence could cost Szymon Hołownia, Polska 2050, and indirectly also the PSL and Wladysław Kosiniak Kamysz, the loss of control over an electorate sympathetic to them.
Such a development cannot be dismissed out of hand. At the same time, it is possible that we are dealing with a completely different mechanism, which is related to the deep feelings reigning in the reluctant voters of Yaroslav Kaczynski's party. Marek Wrobel's predictions are one of the options of favorable development for the right wing, which means a kind of disintegration of the ruling camp. However, it is also worth considering scenarios that pose much worse prospects not only for the right, but also – more importantly – for Polish sovereignty.
The positive scenario of the conservative side suggests that some voters who voted for the political center – in the form of Poland 2050 and PSL – will eventually see that there is no alternative to the duopoly created by PiS and the current ruling coalition parties. Among them belongs to the third way. As a result, some sectors of the electorate would shift their votes to the dominant parties. However, most of this group will undergo demobilization, which is a common occurrence when a major mobilization process is followed by disillusionment with its results. As a result, the center-left would lose a significant number of voters and the political scene would return to the relatively stable advantages of the center-right. Of course, this assumes that Jaroslaw Kaczynski's formation will be able to maintain unity and attract voters among the new age groups of Poles entering adulthood.
Today's opposition wants revenge
However, to test the speculations about the future, it is worth looking at the sociological data. On December 21, 2023, the head of the IBRIS Foundation, Markin Duma, published on his social media profile the results of an interesting study showing the mental well-being of voters in Poland in relation to the United Right government. Among former opposition voters, 52.6 percent believed PiS's rule was “really humiliating,” while 26.6 percent found it “fairly humiliating.” Similarly, 39.8 percent felt “particularly humiliated.” 28.8% of people in this group were undecided and “quite humiliated”. The conclusion of this study can be summed up in three short sentences used by Duma: “Time for revenge. Time for revenge. “Payment Time”.
In a long fragment of the commentary published on the above-mentioned results, we read: “Today, the opposition voters are satisfied with the restoration of control over reality. Pointing out this fact is primarily about humiliation and symbolic violence (Bourdieu) against those who have deprived them of this feeling for the past 8 years.
The research, the results of which were presented by the Duma, shows that the social mood, which prevailed among the former opposition voters after the elections, is dominated by an irrational desire to take revenge for the psychological discomfort. Feeling humiliated is something different than a bad assessment of one's own financial situation or the financial situation of the country, or a negative assessment of domestic or international politics. The experience of humiliation is not about the actual evaluation of political phenomena, but about how we perceive ourselves, as a nation, and how we want to be perceived, for example, by our country's strategic partners.
This type of irrational approach is translated not only in social readiness for revenge, but also in the disrespectful attitude of a significant part of the citizens towards the basic principles of the functioning of the state. This type of relationship is confirmed by a survey by UCE Research for the Onet.pl portal, published on January 2, 2024, in which the respondents were asked the following question: “Do you support the methods used by the new government to take over the public media?” ?” The results, at least to some extent, can be seen as similar to those associated with feelings of humiliation.
About 84 percent of PO voters support Minister Bartlomiej Sienkiewicz's illegal methods used to take over TVP. As for the left-wing voters, 75 percent like Sienkiewicz's actions. Of them, in the case of the third way, it is slightly less, but still 65%. voters. This last result opens up an interesting way of interpretation when it comes to the behavior of Holonia and Kosniak-Kamish voters, and also allows us to understand why the third way gained so much electoral support in the last poll (according to the combined studies, we are dealing with a jump from 16% to 19.1 percent). .
Prospects for the development of the third way
First, third way voters, like the entire electorate of the former opposition, do not want PiS to return to power, but – second – are less radical. This is not surprising – we are talking about a coalition, almost the entire program of which was included under the name of the third way. Sincerely or not, the “Third Way” slogan was a suggestion by these so-called moderate voters who, before the elections, were tired of the deepening polarization between PiS and PO and wanted to express it.
Regardless of the current politics of Holonia and Kosniak-Kamish, they have gained significant support in the elections. The rise in the polls could mean that the potential for an end to duopoly rule is attractive to some citizens. Although right-wing commentators tend to perceive the silence of both Third Way leaders as support for the methods of Tusk and Sienkiewicz, this does not mean that it is interpreted in the same way among the center-left voters.
After the elections, the opinion is often heard that the third-way voters are already starting to show signs of dissatisfaction. “Moderates” will be disappointed by the fact that Holonia and Kosignac-Cami turned out to be nothing more than Tusk's appetite. However, this is a right-wing point of view. In the center-left camp, the belief in the need to remove PiS from power was and is common; Only the methods cause some concern.
Meanwhile, elements of disillusionment are more noticeable among the voters of the civil platform, who, perhaps, in a small percentage today are surprised by the radical nature of the actions of the new government and, for example, how the rule of law is being “restored”. How does this fit into the combined survey? PO lost 0.4 percent. After the elections, the left lost 1.3 percent of its support. and PiS with 2.2 percent. Therefore, it can be said that there was a phenomenon that should be called “electoral anti-premium”. What is this “anti-premium”?
Political radicalism seems to lead to increased polarization. Compared to the ongoing clash between PO and PiS politicians and the extreme statements of the actions of the left-wing politicians entering the government, the Third Way establishes its position as the center outside the duopoly with its relative lack of power. Political tension. What's more, Shimon Holounia's style of making jokes during the Sejm session about PiS MPs not handling defeat well seems to be an awkward form of revenge against the center-right, which has been pushed into the opposition, which some expected. Sector of voters. No matter how you look at it, from the perspective of the good of the state, these are innocent word games compared to the activities carried out by Ministers Sienkiewicz and Bodnar.
As a result, the Third Way could become a group to which voters who reject the right but are also concerned about the progressive dismantling of state institutions by Tusk's “strong people” will transfer their support. This may have a positive effect on the political rhetoric of this group, which today is a force without a program, but only with potential. It is worth noting that during the campaign, the demands of the Third Way changed from solidary, pro-social positions to economic liberalism close to the confederation. Maybe a moderate but at the same time pro-state centrism will be the next part of TD's political life? This may mean opening a new perspective for the protection of Polish sovereignty against the backdrop of EU centralization.
Perhaps this is the path that Szymon Holownia will choose, who most likely has ambitions to become the President of the Republic of Poland. What if, on top of that, Władysław Kosniak-Kamiś were to become Donald Tusk – who, by default, had fled to Brussels again – as Prime Minister with “benevolent intentions”? Both will definitely need a large electorate to implement their plans. So they will either convince the Poles to vote for the center or they will have to capture one of the radical voters of the duopoly.
It remains an open question whether the Third Way, especially in Poland in 2050, which is a political lifeboat for many liberal and left-leaning people, can take a positive turn towards demands for the protection of Polish sovereignty, the zloty, the military and protection. Economic autonomy and standing on the side of civilization of life. Undoubtedly, the political potential of the third way has not yet taken shape. If he doesn't find it, the above scenario may come true. by Marek Wrobel, but there is no determinism here.
The text was originally published on the website of the Ordo Jury Institute.
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