German historian and political scientist Herfried Muenkler believes that Europe should create its own nuclear potential to deter Russia if the US leaves Europe in the Pacific. Poland should be one of the destroyers of the atomic bomb.
– Weimar Triangle countries (France, Germany and Poland) and two southern European countries (Spain and Italy) should have nuclear weapons under common command, says Muenkler. He adds that “the suitcase with the red button should circulate between the above countries.”
Dr. Krzysztof Rak, historian, publicist and author of books, in an interview with Piotr Zychowicz on Historia realna, said that Muenkler's voice was heard in Poland, but in Germany the discussion about nuclear weapons continues. for quite a few months. It took, among others, the experts of the most important German think tank Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP).
– The starting point of this discussion is what will happen to Germany's security guarantees after Donald Trump comes to power. A scenario is being considered in which Trump will set conditions, for example, for the implementation of Article 5 of the NATO Treaty. (…) For example, the USA will give a guarantee only to those countries that spend enough on armaments and defense, i.e. more than 2%. GDP – said Rak.
Germany is considering two options
The interlocutors noted that Polish public opinion is focused on fights between political parties instead of important issues. – And this discussion went completely unnoticed by us, and it directly concerns us.
– Where did this discussion come from? If something happened to American guarantees (…), how to get nuclear guarantees? (…) America's nuclear umbrella for Poland, Germany and other European NATO members is absolutely crucial, Dr. Ruck said, in the context of Russia's huge nuclear arsenal with which Moscow can blackmail Europe.
As he explained, they are considering what to do in Germany. On the one hand, a German atomic bomb is technically possible, on the other hand, Germany will have to withdraw from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. It will also affect relations with Central and Eastern European partners, hence the concept of Europeanization of this issue. Dr. Ruck noted that German experts generally see two possibilities: EuropeThat is, the development of a security policy by Brussels or another way EuropeanBut outside the EU, that is, an agreement between several countries, as in Muenkler's concept.
Poland. Atomic bomb extraction scenarios
Piotr Zychowicz's guest also noted that from Poland's point of view, the presence of the United States on the continent is more important than a possible nuclear bomb at our disposal.
However, if a negative scenario comes true, Poland should think and discuss like Germany Several scenarios Regarding the purchase of an atomic bomb, Raki explained and listed several potential ones. These are: 1. Independent development of the nuclear project and access to the bomb (like Israel); 2. Finding another country to help (eg Ukraine); 3. Entry into the project with the countries of the Small Intermarium; 4. Scenario of cooperation with Germany, 5. Germany and France; 6. More European countries; 7. Nuclear protection is provided by some supranational structures.
– These scenarios should be on the table, we should express them and think about them. and where is it – asked the scientist. “The Germans do it,” he added.
– There is a war abroad, the Americans are unstable – they may go to the Pacific Ocean if the war breaks out there – and our state elites are doing business… Well, I forgive myself, but you see what – he said. Zikhovich asked his guest whether, despite this political wrangling, he saw the possibility of developing a party consensus to at least deter Russia from nuclear weapons.
Cancer: Demand more from the elite
– We should remember 1939, 1939-1945, the results and imagine Poland, which was created in 1945. And think about whether we want it or not. We live in a democratic country. We can speed up the political elites if the elites do not deal with the basic issuesAnd safety is really important to us. If we don't demand more from the elites, we risk what happened in 1939. If elites do not respond to security threats, they will be eliminated. Then we will have to change them. (…) Polish sovereignty and the fact that we can govern ourselves in our country is one of the greatest values. We just have to manage ourselves and act responsibly, said Krzysztof Rak.
Zikhovich: Deterrent
– I am afraid of the Polish political class. What do they do, what do they live by? And there are very serious challenges ahead of us, agreed Zikhovic.
Later in the show, Rak and Zikhovich discussed individual scenarios in more detail. They also reminded that Poland needs nuclear weapons not to use them, but to stop the Kremlin rulers. In the context of nuclear weapons, which prevent the parties from fighting, Zikhovich recalled case India and Pakistan.
He also noted that Ukraine's biggest mistake was accepting superpower guarantees in 1994 and returning nuclear missiles inherited from the Soviet Union. – If Ukraine still had these nuclear weapons, I don't think it would have the same problems with Russia that it has since 2014. Therefore, nuclear weapons are needed as a deterrent and balance of power weapon, and not to attack each other with missiles, as this is absurd, he emphasized.
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(tags translated) krzysztof rak