How are investors reacting to the political storm around Poland? “January 11 will be a test”

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Fluctuations in the exchange rates of the main currencies during the month did not exceed about 10 gros. Stock market prices remain at their highest level since 2022, although they were corrected earlier this year. Are there any circumstances that could disturb market players, weaken the Polish currency and significantly affect the exchange?

Grzegorz Dróżdż, analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Cinkciarz.pl), in an interview with money.pl, confirms that there is no economic storm in Poland yet. – Present, hot Political events did not have a significant impact on the Polish capital market and the zloty exchange rate – he said.

It should be noted that our currency and stock market are largely dependent on foreign investors, whose share in the first half of 2023 was up to 65%. It seems that foreign investors still do not appreciate the problems in Polish politics in the context of business operations in our country – says Grzegorz Dozdzi.

Piotr Kuczyński, an economist at Xelion, in an interview with money.pl emphasizes that the market does not react negatively to what is happening in Poland. – increasing political tension (cancellation of the Seimas session, arrest of the Kaminski-Vesik couple) and Polish financial markets are volatile and unresponsive to this rise in tensions, he says.

The exchange rate dances to the rhythm of changes in the EUR/USD exchange rate and the WSE follows what is happening on global markets.. Theoretically, the investors are right, because the budget will definitely reach President Andrzej Duda's desk by January 31, which will prevent the President from dissolving the Sejm, the economist emphasizes.

The same position is held by the Minister of Finance. Andrzej Domanski he said in an interview with money.plthat “the adoption of the budget is not in danger”. – We are in contact with the Chancellery of the Seimas and the Senate. So far, work on the budget bill has been going smoothly and I hope it will continue. The budget bill does not raise doubts – he informed.

Piotr Kuczynski notes that after receiving the budget, President Andrzej Duda has two options – to sign it or “send the budget to the body sitting in the building of the Constitutional Tribunal”.

– This would be (in my opinion) a completely senseless step It did not follow the dissolution of the Seimas – emphasizes the economist.

– Claiming that the transfer of the budget bill to the Constitutional Tribunal opens the way to the dissolution of the Parliament, It is doubtful. In this regard, the provisions of the Constitution are quite precise – – said the expert.

The expert emphasized that Article 225 of the Constitution states that “if within four months of the submission of the draft budget act to the Seimas It shall not be submitted to the President of the Republic of Poland for signature, The President of the Republic of Poland can order to shorten the term of office of the Seimas within 14 days.

in my opinion The President cannot interpret this provision broadly. The important thing here is the fact of presenting the bill for signature, not what happens after it. The President can submit a petition to the Tribunal regarding a bill submitted to him, and therefore the Seimas has done what the Constitution requires. The phrase “presented for signature” refers to the Speaker of the Seimas, which follows from Art. 122 section 1 of the Constitution – emphasizes Prof. Piotrovsky.

He also noted that it is difficult to predict what the decision of the Constitutional Tribunal will be. – However, it is unlikely that he would find the entire act unconstitutional. Therefore, we can talk about the inconsistency of specific provisions with the Constitution – emphasizes.

On Thursday, we will be able to find out whether investors take the events in Poland as a worrying signal. Law and Justice announced a protest action on January 11. – An action will be held to protect freedom of speech, media freedom and democracy. Because today we have a big problem of democracy – Jaroslaw Kaczynski said a week ago.

– If violent acts were taking place, investor disagreements would disappear instantly. January 11 will be an important test for their attitude Piotr Kuczynski said.