Even in Budzi, Marek no longer talks about the unification of Warsaw and Kyiv, which from the beginning looked like a harsh phantasmagoria, but some were seduced by it.
Last year's cooling of Polish-Ukrainian relations can still be blamed on political issues – with the stunning PiS government battered and blindsided both in the country and in Europe, Kiev clearly bet on a change of government and adopted a wait-and-see attitude. which was interrupted from time to time by completely brazen tricks, such as Zelensky's speech at the UN during Duda's speech.
A change of power over the Vistula has actually taken place, so it looks like Poland and Ukraine are going to play each other again – but here's the joke. Tusk did not break the roadblock at the border crossing, which alarmed the European Commission – Transport Commissioner Adina Valean even sent a letter to Infrastructure Minister Dariusz Klimczak about it. Unfortunately, he is from the PSL, which is known for supporting protests by various professional groups in the context of trade with Ukraine.
Different politicians, same interests
The situation has worsened so much that the Ukrainian “European Truth” published an alarming tone text Signed by the entire editorial board, it describes Poland's actions as those of “enemy Hungary.” The authors, among others, criticize the new Minister of Agriculture, Czeslaw Siekierski, for declaring that the embargo on several types of agricultural products introduced by PiS will remain in force indefinitely. Already before the election I was writingThat the demands of the Third Way regarding economic relations with Ukraine go much further than the policies of PiS, therefore I am not surprised.
However, the authors of the “European Truth” text have the biggest grudge against Warsaw for blocking the border. He expresses an unspoken belief that the Polish government is actually using the far right, from which he has officially distanced himself.
“For example, currently not only the “confederates”, but also Polish farmers are blocking the Ukrainian border and making demands that have nothing to do with Ukraine. And it seems that Tusk is preparing to meet these demands,” we read.
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It turns out that disagreements and tensions between Poland and Ukraine are not based on politics, but primarily on the real interests of social and professional groups. Politicians only respond to them, often not very intelligently, to score a few points of support. If PiS and PO disappeared, the situation would not change much, because their successors would have to find their way in the same reality.
What's worse, we're heading for deeper tensions the closer we get Ukraine's entry into the European UnionThe more potential sources of conflict. Although this accession is absolutely crucial from the point of view of Poland as a whole, paradoxically, it is with this country that we will have the greatest divergence of interests when it is in this united Europe. They will be heard in the period before joining. That is, much more than before.
Inter-regional competition
When Ukraine joins the EU, it will be the poorest member state. Bulgaria is next to Luxembourg. Ukraine's GDP per capita according to purchasing power parity reached more than 14,000 last year. dollar. This means that Poland is three times richer. Of course, we can hope that before the accession, Ukraine will start to stand on its feet and its economy will generate more and bring higher income. However, we must remember that the current GDP is artificially inflated by the huge financial support of the West. The European Union itself since the beginning of the war He supported it Ukraine and Ukrainians in the total amount of EUR 85 billion, of which EUR 31 billion is direct financial support and another EUR 10 billion in loans, subsidies and guarantees issued by member states.
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In other words, the regions of Ukraine will become the absolute poorest regions of the European Union. And this is crucial in the context of cohesion funds. Currently, some Polish regions has GDP per capita below 70%. EU averages and all but the capital are significantly below average. In 2021, it barely exceeded 50% in Podkarpackie, Lublin, Swietokrzyski, Podlasie and Warmia-Masurian Voivodeships. Thanks to this, EU funds flow widely to these regions. When Ukraine joins the EU, the average GDP per capita in the EU will decrease significantly, but the relative level of development of the Polish voivodeships will increase. Thus, some of them will lose the European funds that will flow to the Dnieper regions.
Last December, the German Economic Institute from Cologne published the IW account, in which he describes the financial costs of Ukraine's EU accession. “It can be assumed that Ukraine, as a country with a large population, poor and dominated by agriculture, will be entitled to receive significant financial resources from the EU budget,” the authors of the report write. how much is this money In total, if Ukraine used the current financial perspective (2021–2027), it would receive EUR 190 billion, including EUR 90 billion for coherent policies. By comparison, Poland will receive €76 billion from cohesion funds in this perspective. Ukraine would be a bigger beneficiary, although it has a much smaller population – currently around 30 million.
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Consequently, Ukraine's accession to the EU will automatically reduce the amount of funds for Poland, significantly. There is no conspiracy here, this is pure mathematics. Of course, it is difficult to say exactly how much, because it is not known under what conditions and when Ukraine will join the European Union. We also don't know if the EU will increase the budget at this time – there is talk of bringing in EU taxes, which would be the Commonwealth's own revenue, but these are still just concepts. One way or another, Poland will have to get used to “giving” a significant part of cohesion funds to Ukraine.
hostile grain from abroad
Agricultural policy is a separate issue. In this case, Poland is no longer the biggest beneficiary, but one of the biggest. Of course, agriculture is not the primary sector for the Polish economy today, as we are a highly industrialized country. Agriculture plays such a large role in public awareness only because of its attachment to tradition and the enormous influence farmers have on politicians and public debate. share of agriculture in 2022 GDP of Poland was 2.4 percent by comparison, industry was 28 percent and construction was 6 percent. Even the information and communication sector contributed almost twice as much to Poland's GDP as agriculture. This does not change the fact that we are clearly more “agricultural” than the EU average – the share of agriculture in Europe was 1.9% of GDP.
Meanwhile, agriculture is a key economic sector for Ukraine – before the war answered up to 11 percent of GDP According to account Polish Institute of Economics Stronger Together: Present and Future Challenges to Ukraine's EU Integration Path In 2021, it was also 41%. Export of Ukraine. According to the IW report, under this financial perspective, Ukrainian agricultural subsidies could reach 90 billion euros. By comparison, Poland will receive “only” €25 billion from the Common Agricultural Policy in 2023-2027.
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Here too we will have to move forward. Not to mention the fact that Ukrainian agricultural goods will be a big competition for Polish producers. They will be dramatically cheaper, because the prices on the Dnieper are very low, but the agricultural production possibilities are very large. From the point of view of the economy as a whole, this is not a threat, but for the professional groups that make a living from agriculture, it means enormous problems that will lead to regular social tensions. Late last year and when we had a foretaste Poland was flooded with agricultural products from Ukrainewhich were theoretically supposed to be exported, but the price was so attractive that food producers could not resist buying some of them.
Cheap drivers versus more expensive ones
However, Poland will compete with Ukraine in other industries as well. For example, in transport and logistics, which is much more important for our economy. “Transport and logistics” sector is 6%. GDP of Poland According to account PIE, the Polish TSL sector was responsible for a fifth of the transport work carried out in the EU and was the clear leader.
In Ukraine, the TSL sector is almost as important as in Poland – it was responsible for 5.5% in 2021. GDP In this case, Polish carriers will be protected by the EU mobility package, which was originally designed to protect French carriers from Polish ones. It requires foreign carriers to apply national regulations, including national minimum wages. But even then, the prices of Ukrainian carriers will be much lower. After all, Polish drivers do not earn minimum wage.
Over time, Ukraine will also begin to compete with Poland and other countries in the region for foreign investment. This is the tune of the future, because first of all it will have to rebuild not only the working class thinned by war and emigration, but above all the crumbling infrastructure. Even before the war, Ukraine was not an industrial country – in 2021, industry contributed only 10%. GDP, that is three times less than in Poland. Initially, low-quality foreign investments will be located on the Dnieper, which we are not particularly interested in. When Ukraine gets back on its feet, it will also begin to compete with all of Central and Eastern Europe for high-end factories, and extremely low prices will be an important element of its competitiveness.
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That is why the tension in relations with Kiev is constantly arising, no matter how it ends in constant fights. It is up to the politicians whether they serve the interests of Polish social groups in a flashy and adventurous way, like the previous government, or in a cultural, respectful and meaningful way. Fortunately, socially minded liberals seem far better equipped to forge a difficult relationship with Ukraine than the emotional right.
(translate tags)Ekonomia