PiS is positioning itself in a similar position as it was at the peak of “Smolensk fever” in 2010-14. This narrative mobilizes radical voters but frustrates everyone else. After going into the local and presidential elections with the message of the March of Free Poles, PiS is likely to lose them.
According to Warsaw City Hall estimates, 35,000 people took part in the PiS March of Free Poles. Organizers say this number is almost ten times higher – 300,000. Onet estimates the attendance at the peak of the march at 80,000-100,000. PiS MPs also have to talk about more than 80,000 surnames. Therefore, it seems that the number of several tens of thousands of participants is the closest to reality.
Is it a lot or a little political? Can PiS claim success or should the government camp be happy with the defeat of the populist opposition?
This is more than expected
We must admit that the march of PiS was successful. At its peak, it reached 80-90,000, about double the number expected on Thursday morning, when political commentators had estimated around 35-40,000 in attendance. The march of up to 100,000, led by Kaczynski, suggests the demonstration will not be limited to PiS and Solidarity cadres who have been bussed into Warsaw from all over Poland. PiS may not have captured the kind of crowds that the opposition did on June 4 or the Million Hearts march, but it certainly managed to attract supporters who were not normally involved in the life of the party or its supporting trade unions.
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Although many factors were not favorable for this, including the weather and the fact that the demonstration was held on a working day. The turnout was not affected by the fact that the Sejm was empty that day as a result of Shimon Holovnia's decision – the demonstrators chanted their shouts into the void, Tusk, Holovnia, Kosniak-Kamish or Zarzasti could not hear them. . The changes in TVP have already gone so far, and TV faces have switched to Telewizja Republika, that many potential PiS supporters may have doubted whether it makes sense to take to the streets in winter to protest what cannot be changed. Because the reason for calling the march was protest against changes in public media.
Perhaps it had a motivational effect Arrest of Mariusz Kaminski and Maciej Vesic on Tuesday. On Thursday, former MPs were transferred to prisons in Radom (Kaminsk) and Ostrolenka (near Vasik), their former colleagues founded a committee to protect political prisoners, wives of prisoners complained about their fate in PiS media, and party activists spoke out. about the “Tusk of political prisoners of democracy”, even reaching a simple comparison of former CBA leaders with actual political prisoners such as Andrzej Pozobut. The arrests of the politicians, whom PiS followers treated as blameless “great incorruptibles”, the heroes of the fight against corruption, seemed to stir up emotions that had already evaporated around the TVP case itself.
A message from the catacombs
At the same time, the relative success of Thursday's march does not change the overall political dynamics of the country. PiS has lost power and will remain in the opposition for a long time. And it won't break quickly if it tries to reach voters with a message like the March of Free Poles.
PiS leaders speaking at the event often addressed third-way voters with questions: “Did you vote for this?”, “Would you like to be a side dish of the Tusk government?”, “Don't you feel cheated?” For PiS voters.
During the march, Jaroslaw Kaczynski repeated the same conspiracy narrative he has been spreading since losing the election. To sum it up as much as possible: Germany is trying to transform Europe into a superpower ruled from Berlin, Tusk was “put in Warsaw” to make it possible, if we don't stop him, Poland will disappear as a sovereign state, turn into a state. “Territory populated by Poles” ruled from outside. Foreign governments will settle illegal migrants here, bringing conflicts, crime and even terror, they will impose the Euro on us, which will destroy Poland economically and make it impossible for Western economies to catch up.
To achieve these goals, Tusk is violating the Constitution, violating rights, eliminating “all institutions of control over the government,” pushing for a media monopoly, and oppressing and imprisoning patriots like Kaminski and Vesik. Next in line is “Destroying the Office of the President” – whatever that means. As a bonus, President Kaczynski cast doubt on the results of the recent elections because “it is not known what happened to them”, although he emphasized that he does not question their results.
It's a message befitting a party mired in the catacombs of the radical, conspiratorial right, not a force capable of actually reaching power – especially by winning an independent majority in the Seimas. PiS is positioning itself in a similar position as it was at the peak of “Smolensk fever” in 2010-14.
A party that claims that Tusk is destroying Polish statehood on Berlin's orders is beyond the bounds of rational public debate and cannot be taken seriously. Such a narrative mobilizes and focuses radical voters, but hinders everyone else, terrified of a political force that looks more like a sect than a party, operating in its own completely parallel, deeply paranoid reality.
Poland needs a better opposition
After going into the local and presidential elections with the message of the March of Free Poles, PiS is likely to lose them. At the same time, this course of radicalization and self-marginalization of PiS is a problem not only for the party, but for the public life of Poland as a whole. A well-organized democracy needs a wise, substantive, systematic opposition that respects the rules. The total, anti-systemic style of the PiS opposition will degenerate not only Kaczynski's party, but also, unfortunately, our entire public life.
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PiS's anti-establishment attacks in recent weeks – be it against public media or Kaminski and Wąsik – have completely frozen any meaningful discussion of government policy, with the whole of Polish public life once again torn between PiS and Anti-PiS around the battle. PiS's excesses will force the coalition to close on October 15, marginalizing the voices of its smaller constituent partners, leaving them little room to articulate their own political ideas. Just as the entire opposition once had to devote its energy, like it or not, to fighting the excesses of the ruling PiS, it must now be devoted to fighting the exploits of this party in the opposition.
Meanwhile, they will face Poland Really serious challenges. With them in mind, there is something completely obscene about how much of our politics is devoted to the problems of Kaminski and Vesik — people rightfully convicted of abuse of power who should never have held such high office after 2015 — and ego. A president who can't admit he made a mistake nearly nine years ago by abusing his pardon power. Unfortunately, we will not have another opposition for a long time. We can only wait until further defeats force PiS to wake up. Although the turnout at Thursday's march shows that as a radical opposition, it is playing for its 25-30 percent. Voters, PiS may spend the winter in the catacombs longer than anyone imagines.
(tags translated)Donald Tusk