The aftermath of the war in Ukraine and Israel's attacks on the Gaza Strip will have a huge impact on events around the world – as will the possible return of Donald Trump. And in other parts of the world, especially in Asia, further conflicts are on the verge of breaking out.
There is no sign that 2024 will bring more peace than 2023. Not only in Poland – where, as soon as the PiS protests against TVP are over, pre-campaigning for local elections will begin. We have potentially politically turbulent months ahead, including some very important elections for the future of the world.
Asia chooses
The first of them will be held in Taiwan in less than half a month – on January 13, the island's population will elect a president. Incumbent Vice President Lai Ching-te currently has a slight lead in the polls. He is a supporter of greater independence for the island and is known for his critical attitude towards the People's Republic of China and the ruling Communist Party of China.
Analysts are wondering how Beijing will react to Lai's possible victory. It is possible to see an increase in tension in the region. To underline its opposition to the Taiwanese choice and to emphasize that Taiwan is a “rebellious province” from Beijing's point of view, the PRC may organize naval and air force maneuvers around the island. Provocations are not excluded, for example, in the form of a violation of Taiwan's airspace, although analysts believe that a full-scale invasion of the island is unlikely.
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However, if it happens, it can happen The beginning of the third world war, open armed conflict between Beijing and Washington. Now, after President Xi Jinping's visit to the United States in November, there is some calm in US-China relations. It probably won't last long, but it might be enough to dampen China's reaction to the election results in Taiwan.
In the spring, elections will be held in the world's most populous democracy – India. All surveys and analyzes point to its existence Prime Minister Narendra Modi He will easily secure a third term. In 2023, India will chair the G20 and Modi has pursued a very ambitious international policy that will make India a bridge between the Global South and the developed world. Modi's third victory is expected to only boost his global ambitions.
Modi is often compared to western right-wing populists, his rule has an unmistakable authoritarian undertone. However, he enjoys genuine support from the majority of the people of India and the democratic mandate he gets will be genuine.
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The same cannot be said about the winners of next year's elections in other South Asian countries. Bangladesh's January election will be boycotted by the main opposition party, while Pakistan's February election comes after the country's most popular politician, former prime minister Imran Khan, is in jail. Consequently, the results of these elections are quite predictable; The question is how stable the governments will be.
Will the right-wing populists win in the European Parliament?
In the spring we will also have European elections. Analysts, commentators and the European political class have long feared the success of anti-European radical right parties.
Undoubtedly, it still enjoys good economic conditions in Europe. Its representatives rule Italy and Hungary. Anti-European and anti-immigrant Freedom Party He won the most votes in November In the Dutch election – though if he forms a government, he will be part of a coalition to offset his radical advantage.
In Germany, the alternative for Germany is in position from the summer of 2023 Surveys Second place and the October elections to the state parliaments of Bavaria and Hesse showed that this far-right party can do well not only in the former GDR states, but also in the wealthy western regions of the country. in France, for half a year, Surveys Party preferences are led by Marine Le Pen's National Action.
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Radical rightist Not strong enough to break the traditional dominance of the Christian Democrats, Social Democrats, Greens and Liberals in the next European Parliament, but it could record its best performance in the history of European elections. Such an outcome will politically weaken not only the EU's ambitious reform plans, but also European solidarity, strengthening the politics of national selfishness.
Parliamentary elections in Great Britain will most likely be held in 2024. All indications are that after 14 years the Tories will finally leave power and the new Prime Minister will be the Labor leader Sir Keir Starmer. This is one of the changes we are looking forward to next year.
Will Trump come back?
However, the most important elections await us in November in the United States. Everything indicates that we will see a repeat of the Biden-Trump duel of four years ago. Trump's participation in the Republican primaries was recently blocked by the Colorado Supreme Court and the Maine Secretary of State, based on provisions of the 14th Amendment to the Constitution, which prohibits people who have rebelled against the US government while in office. However, it is unlikely that the legal system will be able to block Trump's return using such methods. The final decision, more likely to favor the former president, will likely come from the Supreme Court, which is dominated by very conservative justices, including three nominated by Trump.
Trump is running for the Republican Party nomination It will definitely leadAverage support is over 60 percent. Surveys Over the past two weeks, a study of his support in a presidential showdown with Biden also points to a victory for the former president more often than the incumbent — though the differences here are minimal.
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Support for Biden's presidency is average survey level below 40 percent. Gallup survey Since November, it has shown that the president's performance is particularly poorly rated in areas such as foreign policy and the economy, where less than a third of respondents rate him as good. And it's the economy that could prove crucial to who America chooses. Biden's base is also divided, divided and even demobilized by the war in Gaza and conflicting assessments of the administration's policies toward the conflict.
Democrats, on the other hand, have often performed better than expected in recent years, and the prospect of another Trump presidency could scare enough Americans. It may once again work in Democrats' favor that Republicans today associate themselves with a socially unacceptable Supreme Court decision that Americans have been stripped of their right to abortion as a constitutional law.
What does the return of Trump mean? Analysts in the United States fear that his second term will be far more authoritarian than his first. On the campaign trail, Trump said, among other things, mass deportations of migrants not seen since the 1950s, considering sending the National Guard to major cities run by Democrats who allegedly failed to keep their residents safe, declaring the Justice Department to be directly under the president, and political Repression of opponents. Led by Biden and his family.
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On the international stage, we will see the return of the America First policy, which leaves many American allies. A renewed Trump presidency could also mean new tensions in US-China relations. Trump sees China as the main threat to the United States, attacking Biden for being too soft policy towards Beijing And he may want to show his voters that, unlike “Sleeper Joe,” he can be tough. In turn, the Chinese may choose a policy of escalation to distract their citizens from domestic problems.
After the lifting of Covid restrictions, the economic recovery in 2023 turned out to be weaker than expected. The construction industry, which is the key to China's economy, is experiencing a crisis. Discontent among young people is growing. In this situation, anti-American, nationalist mobilization can be seen as a flight forward.
Will Ukraine be left alone?
Trump's victory may also mean that Ukraine will be left alone. Today, the former president announces that he will immediately turn off the faucet on American aid to Kiev and immediately end the war.
Today, the situation in Ukraine is difficult. This year's counteroffensive did not bring a breakthrough in the war that would be favorable to Kiev. In the United States, obviously Further support for Kiev is falling apart. The Americans recently provided Ukraine with a $250 million military aid package, but this is a drop in the ocean of needs. Meanwhile, a major new aid package worth more than $60 billion is stuck in Congress. Hungary is blocking a package worth 50 billion euros from the European Union, but how much reports According to the Financial Times, the European Union is working on a plan B that would allow Kyiv to transfer 20 billion euros over Budapest's objections.
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However, there is doubt as to whether the West, including the Biden administration, is It is determined enough to support the struggle of Ukrainians Until victory over Russia, or there will be pressure to reach some kind of agreement. This means normalizing Russia's occupation of eastern Ukraine and freezing the conflict, allowing Russia to strengthen, regroup and attack again. This is a very dangerous scenario not only for Ukraine, but also for Poland.
There is no hope for improvement in the Middle East
The Middle East will also be an area of instability. Israel says the war in Gaza will continue for many more months. Israel's goal remains the elimination of Hamas in Gaza, which, if at all achievable, would mean further humanitarian disaster and tragedy for the Palestinian people.
After the war, we are still threatened with the occupation of part of Gaza. At any rate, today Israel is determined that the Palestinian Authority will not take power in Gaza and that the issue of Palestinian statehood will not actually be on the table. And without solving this issue Peace in the region is impossible.
The international community also fears the escalation and internationalization of the conflict, primarily due to the entry of armed groups supported by Iran. Yemen's Houthis recently stepped up attacks on American ships in the Red Sea. More and more ships avoid the water area for fear of attacks. At the same time, it is crucial for international cargo traffic as a “corridor” leading to the Suez Canal, which is the shortest sea route from Asia to Europe. Blocking this road will have serious economic consequences.
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Analysts predict that the global economy will avoid recession next year. Growth is expected to slow and recover in 2025. But unforeseen events, such as the internationalization of the conflict in the Middle East, the collapse of Ukrainian defenses or the war over Taiwan, can radically change these forecasts.