“Experiment”. More than 3 million Poles are growing

in 2023 Minimum wage in Poland was 3600 PLN total. From January 2024, it increased to 4242 PLN in total. The next increase will take place in July 2024 – to a total of PLN 4,300.

It is estimated that around 3.6 million people in Poland earn the minimum wage. However, growth will have a major impact on the country's overall economic situation, including the labor market, inflation and consumption.

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Oskar Sobolewski, HRK Payroll Consulting's pension and labor market expert, notes in a comment to money.pl that Poland overtakes Portugal, Lithuania, Malta, Cyprus and Greece in the European minimum wage ranking.

Poland's minimum wage – 980 euros – will be the ninth highest in Europe. Only Germany, France, Benelux countries, Spain and Slovenia, with two million inhabitants, will overtake us – he calculates.

in relation to the average salary However, Poland's minimum wage will be the highest in Europe (Not counting Greece, where several tens of percent of workers are below the theoretical minimum). And one of the highest in the world – next to Latin American countries.

– The minimum wage in Poland will be so high compared to other countries and the average wage that… It is very difficult to predict the results of this experiment – says the analyst.

As he emphasizes, the minimum wage increased from 33% in 2007-2016. to about 43 percent on average. – Since then, it fluctuated between 42-45 percent. on average. In 2022, it was less than 43 percent again. An increase from this level to 55% in two years. is not only huge in the context of history, but also leads to levels unheard of in the EU – the expert calculates.

This threatens the competitiveness of companies that have low added value, low profitability and employ low-skilled workers. Among them are hundreds of thousands of small companies for which an increase in the minimum wage means not only an increase in employee costs, but also an increase in ZUS contributions. Whether this will be the reason for the terminal problems of these companies, we will find out in the coming quarters, he enumerates.

According to the expert, thousands of employees will leave the Polish labor market every day in the next 30 years. – It would be better if future wage increases were based on productivity growthSo that the demand for employees is the driving force of wages, and not a situation where the administrative increase of the minimum wage can lead to a decrease in the demand for employees – emphasizes Oscar Sobolevsky.

A higher minimum wage could be good news for millions of people who earn this type of wage. However, its impact on the labor market may be negative. – A very high minimum wage does not encourage professional activity and pushes less skilled and inexperienced people out of the labor market.Returning after a long break, disabled or burdened with other responsibilities, older and more broadly – less productive, but willing to work – he notes.

– With unemployment below 3%. Rapid wage growth does more harm than good. Especially with inflation at least twice the NBP's target inflation, when it comes with a 60% increase in 500 plus, “thirteenth” and “fourteenth salary” payments. An increase in prices, which ends up reducing the cost savings and income of the purchase, he adds.

The analyst also notes that many EU countries, such as Denmark, Italy and Sweden, do not use a national minimum wage. – But they are quite associated with high standards in the labor market – he notes.

The issue of the minimum wage in Poland may change significantly. As the expert explains, By November 2024, we are committed to implementing an EU directive that promotes minimum wage differentiation by region or industry.

– so that in poor regions it is lower, and in rich regions it is higher than the average national salary. I doubt whether we will go down the path of regionalizationThis is a controversial topic – says the expert.

As the analyst notes, the directive recommends setting the minimum wage to about 50%. Average income.

– In Poland, during the implementation of the directive, we expected a minimum of PLN 3800 by 2024. I don't expect the minimum to go down, so probably very likely The result of the election sausage of 2023 will be the stagnation of the minimum wage in Poland and its further stabilization within the range of approximately 45-50 percent. Average – ratings Sobolevsky.

Robert Kedzierski, money journalist.pl