The costs and challenges of protecting Ukraine will differ dramatically depending on whether occupied Crimea returns to Ukraine or remains in Russian hands. Analysts of the American Institute for the Study of War write about this, analyzing various scenarios.
“The scenarios considered for January 2022 assume that Russia will retain Crimea. However, if Ukraine liberates the peninsula along with the occupied southern lines, then the direct threat to Kherson, Mykolaiv and Odesa will disappear and the threat to Melitopol will decrease. Sharply,” notes ISW.
Analysts note that Mariupol remains the only major frontline city in the south, reducing the region's defense depth. The liberation of Crimea would also largely eliminate the threat of Russian amphibious operations off Ukraine's southwestern coast, as well as the threat of Russian missiles to ships attempting to cross the Black Sea.
“Unfounded discussions about Russia's “historical right” to Crimea, which Russia itself recognized as part of independent Ukraine, cover up the high military and financial costs that Ukraine and its allies incurred during Russia's occupation of the peninsula,” the analysts conclude.
Battle for Crimea
The Secretary of the National Security Council, Oleksii Danilov, recently announced that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have already destroyed 20 percent. Ships of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation.
Military expert Oleksandr Kovalenko noted in his commentary that Crimea was supposed to become “a stronghold and support for the Russian occupiers in their occupation of the entire southern Ukraine, but it has become a burden that causes more problems and losses than gains.” A moment will come that will make keeping Crimea an even bigger problem for Moscow.
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