An opportunity arose. Will Tusk hit banks with new tax?

PLN 27.6 billion – This is the profit that banks earned from January to November 2023, according to data from the National Bank of Poland (NBP). Although the December data is not yet available, – according to the analysts interviewed by money.pl – banks have two equally good, if not better, years ahead of them.

– Banks' profit this year should be at the same level as last year or slightly lower. However, in 2025 they should be better than this and last yearBecause it doesn't have to be anymore Franc reserves and costs Credit holidays – predicts mBank brokerage house analyst Michal Konarski in an interview with money.pl.

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– This year I expect very good results from the banking sector – similar to last year. Interest income should be fed by the still high interest rates of the central bank. Commission income will be strengthened by the improvement of the economic situation, and at the same time it will increase the turnover on current accounts and the demand for loans – adds Markin Materna, the director of the analysis department of the brokerage house of Bank Millennium.

Millenium's analyst points out that until the end of last year we saw a reduction in inflation, but there are increasingly voices that price increases may return.

If, on the other hand, inflation does not decrease significantly – adds our interlocutor – interest rate movements should not be expected, otherwise they will be insignificant. This will also be a favorable situation for banks. However, if inflation drops significantly and this is translated into the level of interest rates, which the analyst does not rule out, this will negatively affect the result. Given the current monetary policy and rhetoric of the National Bank of Poland, as well as government actions that encourage consumption, the likelihood of this scenario happening – according to the Millennium analyst – is low.

Analysts are closely watching the budgetary situation, as it may have a negative impact on the results of the banking sector. Our interlocutors do not rule out that the sector is overloaded Tax on excess profits. The solution has been known all over the world for a long time. This tax applies to companies in industries that profit from war, crisis or recession.

While recent debt issuance has looked very good as demand outstrips supply, we see that budgets are tight. There are recorded receipts that may not occur, such as receipts from the National Bank of Poland. A high deficit of public finances in relation to GDP, exceeding 5-6 percent, may mean that Minister of Finance will start looking for money in the economy. We do not exclude tax on extraordinary profits – says Konarsky from mBank.

This year, such taxes were imposed in Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia. In some countries these taxes are reduced, for example in Hungary, but they still exist.

The second important factor affecting the results of the banks will be the credit holiday, which, as we know, will most likely last for a year. The bill is ready. The estimated value of the banking sector is PLN 3.6 billion. In 2022-23, they cost PLN 15 billion in total.

– It is difficult to clearly estimate what will cost the banks in the end, because although we know the draft law, we do not rule out that nothing will change in the legislative process, – says Materna from Millennium.

Bankers are criticizing the idea of ​​extending the credit holidays for another year. The president of the Association of Polish Banks (ZBP), Tadeusz Bialek, does not understand why the current government is promoting “the populist solution of the opposition party (credit holidays were initiated by the government). PIS), which he disagrees programmatically in any way.” In a recent conversation with money.pl, he said that the government should support the Borrower Support Fund (FWK), which was created in 2015, that is, at the end of the government. PO and PSL. The fund currently has PLN 1.3 billion of free funds.

He adds that the new charges could be linked to other disputed loans, not necessarily in foreign currency. As you know, banks complain Credit borrowers and cash.

Other risk factors that Marcin Materna from Millennium focuses on are closely related to banking, i.e. the quality of the loan portfolio.

In the case of retail customers, given the scale of social transfers, this year should not deteriorate significantly. Corporate loans are a concern as their profitability is adversely affected by the strengthening of the zloty. However, I do not assume that many of them will face financial problems this year – says our interlocutor.

However, there should be support from the sector New Housing Loan Subsidy Program. However, according to Konarsky of mBank, the program will have a neutral impact on the credit portfolio. – The mortgage portfolio will balance rather than grow, because many loans are being paid off – he explains.

Karolina Wisota, journalist money.pl