Let's face it, this year is going to be nasty, blows can come from all directions. Even if you are surrounded by good and experienced people, the world can still treat you badly.
We might expect everything to be fine, but why? It's just impractical. Optimism means constantly disappointing yourself. Even if we have a particularly successful year, at least a few things will not go as planned. Therefore, it is best to assume that things will go wrong. Pessimists can rejoice even when things go wrong because they expected much worse. Only by adopting a pessimistic attitude can one appreciate the few charms of life.
That's why I've compiled a list of this year's events that could be really bad. Not all of them, of course, because there are too many to describe even in a book, let alone a column. Let's face it, this year is going to be nasty, blows can come from all directions. Even if you are surrounded by good and experienced people, the world can still treat you badly.
Negative visualization was already recommended in the 16th century by the founder of the Jesuits, Ignatius Loyola. It is true that he even went so far as to suggest something that is embarrassing to write about, but we promise that we will not get to that in the text below. Let us respect each other more than the Jesuits.
Poland, which means that there will be nothing
The household situation in the country is dominated by housing affordability, which will not improve at all and is likely to worsen. Finally, in the new year liberal economist and regular visitor of TVN24 BiŚ, prof. Marian Noga, who he applied on RMF Radio to rich people to invest their excess money in apartments.
The lack of social responsibility of Polish professors is legendary, but Noga still stood out. Unfortunately, Polish women and men at the cash register will no doubt appreciate such advice. The influx of speculative capital into the housing market will continue to drive up prices, leaving the less wealthy with nowhere to live. They will learn humility, Ignacy Loyola likes this.
The government's housing policy will not improve the situation. Pisowski Safe Credit 2 percent caused prices to rise so much that it went out of business. Unfortunately, the only idea seriously considered by the new coalition is the 0 percent loan. KO MP Konrad Fristak announced recently, which will have an even more far-reaching effect. It is true that there is a great chance that the leftists will protest against such a solution, but then we will have a housing policy. Krzysztof Kononowicz, which means nothing will happen.
That would be the icing on the cake The war waged by Adam Glapinski against the new ruling team. The head of the NBP and his allies on the monetary policy board could suddenly fall in love with high interest rates against Tusk and stifle the growing economy while completely disenfranchising Polish men and women. This would be the perfect combination. Look for some cozy empty buildings.
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It can also be assumed that the property class will have the opportunity to spend money on apartments, since the new majority will not abandon the liberal tax reforms. Just by restoring the flat health insurance contribution, the new government will bring 7 billion PLN to the knees of the upper class so that the National Health Fund will learn to save. The results of these reforms will most likely be felt only in 2025, but their source will be the mistakes (or rather crimes) committed in that year.
Of course, the destruction of state institutions and respect for the law will continue. President Duda, angry with the government, is known to veto several bills “just because” the new government will completely refuse to pass laws and start ruling by resolutions.
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In this way, they will try to take over the Constitutional Tribunal and the National Council of the Judiciary, which they will only partially achieve, because the previous government bunkers in some buildings and claims that everything is the same. We will have “Przyłębska Tribunal” unrecognized by KO-TD-L and “neo-TK” unrecognized by PiS. There will also be a neo-KRS and a neo-neo-KRS, so depending on how companies sign up, we will have three KRSs. An ordinary person will not understand this.
It is still unclear which side the Supreme Court, which has suddenly chosen, will take collision with the current Constitutional Tribunal. However, we can safely assume that two parallel legal systems will be created, which not only do not recognize each other, but will fight each other. In order to arrange something based on some documents, the average citizen will have to cross his fingers that the office in question will accept them.
The decisions will have little meaning – at any time the court will be able to challenge them because they were issued by a neo-judge or an unpatriotic judge. Debt enforcement – including alimony – will become even more difficult as debtors escape the protection of the “other” legal system. There will be such enormous chaos that the political crisis in Belgium will look like an institutional renaissance against this backdrop.
The world, or what is the difference between Polish fascists
Meanwhile, the international situation will not be favorable for such a deterioration. This year elections will be held in the states of Saxony and Brandenburg, where great chance A fascist alternative to Germany, which is not only far-right, but also quite contemptuous of Poles, is expected to win. When the AfD forms state governments in Saxony and Brandenburg, we will have brown people across the border. And these are the German brown people, who differ from the Poles in that they can implement their concepts on a really large scale. At the level of federal states, their capabilities will still be limited, but once they gain real power, they will begin to refine and gain confidence.
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We'd feel safer sheltering under Uncle Sam's umbrella, but unfortunately, it's no better abroad. The very fact that Biden will likely have to compete in the election with a wave-riding Trump has far-reaching consequences. Adjustment of Democrats' policies. Besides, this already causes: at least a change Narrative From “help Ukraine, however long it takes” to “while we can”.
Ukraine's problem is not only Trump. The tone of the Biden administration has also changed
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It won't even bother Trump use With the services of elite pimp Jeffrey Epstein – in an extremely polarized US, he will be able to present this advantage and “proof of his prowess”. Trump's victory won't be fully realized until next year, when he takes office, but we'll see the fallout already this year as the US administration will have to adapt its policies to his message to maintain a chance at a second term. Especially since Biden will have to fight with the Senate, which blocks his actions.
The political stalemate will drag on in the EU as well, where Orban will do everything to make life difficult for Ukrainians. Deprived of financial and military support from the US and the EU, Ukraine will be in an even worse situation, but Russia is rising. Confusion in the West will encourage China to increase trade with Moscow in dual-use goods from which Russia will build thousands of weapons for mass murder. Half of them will explode in the faces of the launch operators, but four more will take their place.
Ukraine's missile defense will be able to shoot down up to 99 percent. Of the other half, but what good if the remaining 200 fly off and spread death and destruction on the Dnieper and terror in Central and Eastern Europe, which will be threatened with loss of support from abroad and “war fatigue”. Western Europe.
The so-called progress
Technological development serves to discipline citizens, not to improve the quality of life. Employers' resentment was recently voiced by Mackie Panek, who has been talking a lot about the fact that he named his car-sharing company “Panek” (actually, my “company” is called “Piotr Wójcik”, so maybe you shouldn't laugh at me. ). “There is dissatisfaction with those employees who, for example, while working, are looking for a job” – he said President.
So, by the way, they will be created Cheap and widely available algorithms Constant analysis of task performance and immediate response as soon as they come to the conclusion that the employee is thinking about something else. The constant “Please continue your work” messages will be more annoying than the voice messages from self-service checkouts in Biedronka.
Uberization will gain momentum and begin to take over other areas of the economy. Platforms to find short-term replacement workers will leave out full-time employees, and it is possible that in the next year, the discount store will have more employees per shift than permanent employees. During the week an employee will have to clean a night at Lidl, an afternoon at Biedronka, 12 hours of delivering InPost parcels and a security shift at Fiat, and on Friday he will find nothing because everywhere will be full.
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As part of the drive to increase efficiency and a cheaper government, public services will also use algorithms. Urban transport companies will start using applications to monitor passenger flows, which will enable the introduction of flexible connection networks, thanks to which fixed journey times will disappear and the current “travel suggestions” displayed on screens will be replaced.
At the end of the year, the manticore coronavirus will kill us, which Minister Leshchina will have to deal with, which has significantly declined. Health care of Poland. We will have the choice of either a total lockdown, with mandatory closures not only of apartments but even of rooms, or put up with 300,000 excess deaths in one disease season. The Indian vaccine purchased by the National Health Fund will prove to be far less effective than its Western counterparts, but decision-makers will still have no real choice, as new improvements will make the public sector responsible for the “price criterion”. for 80%. attractiveness of the offer.
Of course, many of these predictions will not come true. However, if only two or three of them prove to be true, it will still be devastating. That's why it's better for everyone to prepare to be pleasantly surprised.
(Translate Tags)Donald Trump