President of the National Bank of Poland Prof. Adam Glapinski He commented on the economic situation in Poland at the press conference. A day earlier, the Monetary Policy Council chaired by Glapinski made a decision Keep interest rates unchanged.
President of the National Bank of Poland: inflation is currently 6.1%.
– As for the economy and inflation, the year is starting very well – the president of NBP began. Inflation is currently 6.1%. Glapinski noted that the forecasts of the bank's experts were accurate
– If it weren't for the fact that we don't drink alcohol in official places, I would have had champagne – announced triumphantly. According to him, the increase in prices from month to month is no longer noticeable to citizens. – Inflation in the psychological sense is long gone – she said.
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To illustrate how good the current situation is, Glapinski compared it to February 2023. After that the president of NBP emphasized Inflation decreased by 12 points. The interest rate falls each subsequent month.
President of the National Bank of Poland: In March, we will approach the inflation target
He presented the current economic situation in Poland against the background of other Central and Eastern European countries. – This is shown by the inflation rate published by Eurostat Inflation in Poland is significantly lower than in the Czech Republic, Hungary or Slovakia – he emphasized.
Then he presented the forecasts for the coming months. Analysts predict that inflation will fall below 3% by March. and will come close to the NBP target of 2.5%. The slowdown in price growth was caused by the narrowing of the output gap, the reduction of production costs, the freezing of energy prices and the strong position of the zloty, explained the president of the NBP. A permanent decrease in price growth to the target level of inflation is expected by the end of 2025.
The President of the National Bank of Poland warns. Inflation may rise again soon
However, Glapinski warned that inflation will not only decrease. It may increase again in the second half of 2024. – Current forecasts indicate that after a significant decline in the second half of the year It can even increase to six or eight percent – he said. The level of growth will depend on three factors: VAT rates on staple foods, energy prices and increases for public sector employees.
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As the president of NBP noted, the zero rate of VAT on food is valid until the end of March, and it is not known whether the current government will maintain it or not. According to the data presented by Glapinski, a return to the 5% figure. will increase inflation by 0.9 points. percent. On the other hand, the freezing of energy prices will remain in force until the end of June. If the energy expenditure is completely freed, then This can lead to an increase in inflation up to 4 points. percent
The increase in wages of public sector employees will have the least impact on the increase in prices. In 2024, inflation will increase by 0.1 percentage points. In 2025 it will be 0.4 points. Interest The National Bank of Poland will present the next inflation forecast in March.
President of NBP: I cannot firmly say that interest rates will not change
On Monday, the Monetary Policy Council decided to keep interest rates unchanged. The main benchmark is still 5.75%. Commenting on the decision of the Council, which he chairs, Glapinski stressed that Poland “is not in any cycle” and It is currently impossible to predict what direction potential changes will take.
– I cannot firmly say that the interest rates will not change until the end of MarchBecause it depends on many factors over which we have no influence, he emphasized.
President of the National Bank of Poland: We should not accept the euro now
Glapinski estimated the economic growth Poland survived the economic slowdown with a “dry foot”., which affected other EU countries. According to the president of the NBP, the GDP growth rate will accelerate in the fourth quarter of 2023, although the future of the growth rate is uncertain.
After that he emphasized At the moment, it is not appropriate to start the procedure for the introduction of the euro in Poland. According to Glapinski, this will slow down the dynamics of development. – We would stop the rich countries – he indicated.
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Finally, the president of the National Bank of Poland provided us with data on the gold purchased by the bank. Last year, resources increased by 130 tons of ore. In total, NBP's reserves amount to 360 tons of gold, which is equal to approximately 13 percent. All foreign exchange reserves. Glapinski emphasized that in the end it should be 20 percent, as in rich countries.
At the end of the speech, Glapinski emphasized that “This is all very good information“.