Millions of pensioners are waiting for this news. How much can pension indexation be in 2024?

Oskar Sobolewski, pension and labor market expert HRK Payroll Consulting, founder of Debata Emerytalna, presented calculations on this matter in an interview with money.pl.

After today's announcement of the Central Statistics Service, we already know During the indexation of benefits in March, pensions will increase by at least 11.9%. This is less than in March 2023 But still a big increase in benefits. Importantly and decisively, the increase is a result of the high inflation that accompanied it during 2023. E. Pension inflation slightly exceeds the overall average annual inflation (11.4%). We will know the amount of the final indexation in a few days, and then it will be possible to finally say how much the benefit will increase in March 2024.

The latest data, which will allow us to accurately calculate the amount of indexation, will be released on February 9. 20% is added to the amount received as a result of pension inflation. Real average wage growth in the national economy. We do not yet know these data from the Central Statistics Office.

However, we can estimate how the benefit will change. The minimum pension is today 1,588.44 PLN total. After indexation, it will be 1777.44 PLN, which means increased by 189 PLN.

Where do these calculations come from? In 2022, according to data published by the Central Statistics Service (GUS), average inflation was 14.4%, and pension inflation was 14.8%. That is why pensions and annuities rose by 14.8% in March 2023, as the rate of price growth among pensioner households was higher than that of average households a year earlier.

The increase in benefits in March will probably not be the only one. It is very likely that the second pension indexation will happen. This is one of the promises Civil coalition from the election campaign.

So what can the government do? – A provision may be introduced that if the forecast inflation is 5% throughout the year, this will open the possibility of a second increase in the year. The situation is similar in the case of the minimum wage. If the forecasts assume that inflation will exceed 5%, then there will be two increases per year – explained Dr. Tomasz Lasocki from the Faculty of Law and Administration of the University of Warsaw, with whom he spoke to “Fakt”.