DoRzeczy.pl: For whom can 2024 be particularly successful? Szymon Hołownia and Poland 2050 are mentioned at first glance, but there are many opinions.
Prof. UW Rafał Chwedoruk: This year will certainly be a very good year for Donald Tusk, as he will once again benefit from the status of a beneficiary of change. We don't know what the economic situation will be, but for many reasons the American administration has an interest in managing the global economy to save Joe Biden's chances of winning the presidential election, and this will indirectly affect Poland as well. It is true that the state of the economy of Germany and France is in some ways terrible, but for Donald Tusk this is not the worst moment.
So will this also be a good year for PO?
This party will still not lose its current positions in the local government, if we mention the local self-government elections. Thanks to this, Tusk himself will have a lot of room to maneuver.
What will happen to the third way?
In this case, the situation is similar, but with one caveat. The scale of success in the parliamentary elections was made possible – as various studies have shown – also thanks to the support of the civic platform at the end of the campaign. A certain test in this matter will be the local self-government elections. The PSL has a chance to win over voters who are wavering between PiS and the People's Party, and in the case of Poland 2050, perhaps to take root in local government. Only after the European elections, which will be tied to local government elections, will it be possible to say whether more than a medium-sized formation will emerge from it, uniting the two distant entities in many ways. Therefore, we can say that Poland 2050 is on the list of favorites for political success in the new year, but probably not on the first place.
And what kind of year will it be for law and justice?
It will be a year of shock in every way for law and justice. It is impossible to get out of a multi-level crisis with one cut. PiS has gone through a long transformation path between 2007 and 2015, and there is no sign that this path will be short. The formation, which was in power until recently, is trying to save its internal unity even at the cost of losing some voters and communication channels among those who might be hesitant about the prospect of voting for PiS. The desire to consolidate the party through radicalization is visible, a classic maneuver used in politics, which, however, gives the majority of the voters the right to vote for the given formation.
In addition, PiS's misfortune is that local elections will be held first, where the results of this party are worse than potential. The last local government elections gave PiS an unprecedented influence on the local government, but it will not be possible to repeat this result this year. The leadership crisis intensified in the severely weakened PiS mainstream. There are no easy solutions to the demographic problem in terms of the structure of the electorate, nor are there any ideas to quickly overcome political isolation in the party system.
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(tags translated)chwedoruk