DoRzeczy.pl: The newspaper “Rzeczpospolita” published an article in which we read:that Poland should be on the way to adopting the euro. Is this a realistic and good prospect for us?
Prof. Zbigniew Krysiak: I do not agree that this is a good prospect for us. Having our own currency is an important dimension of sovereignty, which also lies in the fact that we, by building certain mechanisms in the financial market in relation to the formation of monetary policy, which allow a floating exchange rate, rather than a fixed one, like a national bank. Poland has allowed us to profit from it for years.
How?
As a result of the exchange rate mechanism, our trade parity benefits us. When the economic situation worsens in the countries with which we trade, for example in Germany, but it is good for us, we do not come down, that is, we do not reduce the rate of economic development. Recent years are the best example of this. OECD data shows the difference in GDP growth rates over the past eight years. At the end of 2015, the difference was 1 point. Percentage between German and Polish growth rates. In the last eight years, this difference has been growing in favor of Poland. At the end of 2022, it was more than 3%. the difference We have a big disadvantage in Germany, and a plus in Poland. If we had the euro, this difference would not exist.
What else does monetary sovereignty include?
For example, the National Bank of Poland can make autonomous decisions regarding the level of interest rates, depending on inflation. During the crisis, the Baltic states had high inflation, but they do not have a de facto central bank or monetary policy board where decisions on interest rates are made. The decision was made in Frankfurt. Indeed, Germans and French are no better than Poles when it comes to making financial decisions. This is why financial sovereignty is so important. We create our own context, which is an element of quality, better quality. Please note that when Mr. Marek Belka was president of the NBP, he said that Poland was far from the Euro. Today, he wants to join the Eurozone and claims that if we were in the Eurozone, there would be no inflation. This is not true. Just look at the example of the Baltic States.
What do you think will be the consequences of the rapid adoption of the euro?
It would be a disaster. Reversal of our economic development. Another important element is convergence. Today we know that if the potential of the Polish economy does not equal the potential of Germany, the Netherlands and France, our country will be at a loss. Potential consists of many parameters. This refers to GDP levels, average wages, minimum wages, GDP per family, unemployment, etc. According to these parameters, we have been dealing with Germany for eight years. Under Prime Minister Tusk, we were going backwards. Our dynamics in these settings were similar to those in Germany. However, to keep up with Germany, we need at least twelve good years, like the last eight.
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