The government's new housing program will increase prices. “You have to act fast to catch it”

The Polish Press Agency asked for an estimate New government program “Mieszkanie na start”. It provides, among other things, that individuals and families whose monthly income is within the limits determined by the Ministry can receive loan with a preferential interest rate.

Otodom's expert emphasizes that it is important whether there is a provision in the program about price limits per square meter, if they are missing, then “Another strong price driver will emerge in the housing market.”

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In his opinion, a similar situation will arise in the case of other programs of this type. Until its details are known, some sellers – developers and private owners – are holding back from making new offers.

“With the already significant supply problems we experienced last year, the development market itselfcaused the offer level to drop by almost PLN 10,000. Each year (that is, by 19% in the seven largest markets) We are almost guaranteed to have a further serious increase in apartment prices, notes Eva Techak.

He also recalled that the draft of the new program assumes that it will start in six months with a budget of 500 million PLN for 2024. funds. so We know there will be promotion and we know we have to act fast to get it – he notes.

It is not yet possible to compare the housing programs of both governments, as we do not yet know the details of the Cabinet proposals. Donald Tusk. He also states that the level of difficulty of the announced program seems to be much higher than in the case of its predecessor.

It seems that the pool of potential borrowers will be larger. But It also appears that the program will target buyers of larger apartments and families with children rather than singles. – and, therefore, potential buyers of the first apartments – said Eva Techak.

He recalled that the level of lending recorded at the end of 2022 was a record low. This clearly showed how much the purchase of an apartment in Poland depends on the ability to get a mortgage loan.

Therefore, increasing the availability of financing – including through the subsidy system – of course, the demand must be realized in the form of sales. in 2023 – also thanks to the “safe 2% loan”. More than 54 thousand in materialized form. Transactions only in the seven largest city development markets – calculations were indicated by an Otodom expert.

He also pointed to the results of the announcement of the “safe 2% loan”. In the middle of 2023, i.e. from the moment of presentation of the assumptions, reservations in the primary market and advance contracts in the secondary market increased sharply. As a result, there was a very rapid rise in prices.

The interlocutor of PAP, based on the data of Otodom Analytics, noted that during the year the prices in the most important markets of the country increased by 10-11%. In Katowice and Lodz16-17 percent In in Warsaw and Wroclaw22-23 percent each. In Krakow and Poznan. However, in Gdańsk – compared to December 2022 – Prices increased by 26%, which gave an additional 3.2 thousand PLN in nominal terms. PLN per square meter

– if we take into account the currently cheapest of these seven markets – Łódź, where the average offer prices are currently over PLN 9.6 thousand. PLN, this means an increase of PLN 56,000 compared to last year for those interested in buying a 50 sq m apartment. PLN in total price. In Wroclaw, you currently need PLN 103,000 for such an apartment. PLN more, and in Gdańsk 161 thousand. more. The creditworthiness of buyers, despite the statistical increase in the average salary, Interest rate reduction and Easing creditworthiness calculation by banks Did it grow this year? We still cannot forget inflation, which is no longer as shocking as it was a few months ago, but it is still with us – the expert concluded.